These days many trading systems and signals promise you astronomical yield and endless streams of profits. Many systems boast on their profits and claim to be 100% profitable. Most of these claims are false and impossible to fulfill.
100% Hit Rate Is Not Possible
Due to the probabilistic nature of trading, each trade’s outcome is unknown. Technical Analysis is not a science but an art, that provides us clues of price’s future movements. A profitable trading system simply has more probability of winning than of losing, and it is impractical to trade with 100% win rate.
It may seem possible to achieve such win rate, but watching numerous reports of winning traders clearly proves this point. Even top traders does not win more than 60-65% of their trades – their overall performance is not due to their high win percentage but due to the quality of their trades, their Risk:Reward.
High Win Rate May Have Its Cost
Some trading systems take trades with very high win rate, sometimes 90% or even 100%. In most cases, this high win-rate comes with a trade-in, in Risk:Reward, specifically: a very low one. By trading with giant stop loss and a small take profit, one can manage to take small profits in very high win percentage. Big stop loss allows big margin for error, so trades are usually winners. This performance misleads clients to think that this is the holy grail.
Actually, such low Risk:Reward ratio leads to financial ruin. One loss will wipe out profits of many profitable trades and lead to vanish of Equity.
Conclusion
Be careful of anyone promising you the Holy Grail, and be extra careful of services that claim 100% profitability. Even if their results are honest, such high win rate usually carries unwanted side effects.


August 19th, 2009
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